| |
|
|
Socio-Political Developments in the Region |
 |
| The success and pace of economic
reforms, restructuring and recovery in the region hinges
on restoring and maintaining social and political stability
in the affected countries. Popular support and social
order are pre-requisites to carry out tough reforms,
implement rational policies and restore confidence.
This is a challenge which all the crisis-hit Asian economies
are grappling with. |
| |
| The biggest uncertainty is Indonesia,
where social and political tensions threaten to undermine
financial and economic reforms. The coming June elections
will be a milestone in determining how the fragile political
and social conditions develop. If the elections proceed
smoothly, the newly elected government can ride on its
popular mandate to rebuild the economy. However, there
are considerable stress points ahead. In particular,
the possibility of civil unrest derailing the reform
and recovery process is worrisome. An unsettled Indonesia
will colour the entire ASEAN region, including Singapore.
|
| |
| Amidst this backdrop of uncertainties,
the Ministry of Trade and Industry has maintained a
1999 GDP forecast of between -1 per cent to +1 per cent
for Singapore. If the global and regional environment
remains benign and none of the major risks I have outlined
above materialise, and in particular the situation in
the region stabilises and begins to turn around, then
it is conceivable that our GDP growth may exceed +1
per cent in 1999. On the other hand, if some of the
critical uncertainties in the external environment do
unravel, then Singapore will face a more dismal economic
backdrop and GDP may contract by more than 1 per cent.
On balance, we feel that -1 to +1 per cent is an appropriate
forecast in an uncertain situation. |
| |
| |
| |
|
|
| |
|
| |
|
|
|
